Mid-October Gulf tropical activity?

SOUTH MISSISSIPPI (WLOX) - Hurricane season is past its annual peak but doesn’t officially end until November 30. There are signs of possible tropical activity. Let’s take a look at the headlines as of Wednesday morning:

The info we have about next week's weather outlook is still very early. So, there can still be... — The info we have about next week's weather outlook is still very early. So, there can still be many changes as new info becomes available. At this point, it can be no rain at all or it can be some rain and no tropical system or it can be a tropical system trying to form. We'll learn more about the developing forecast in the days to come.(WLOX)

It is currently too early to speculate any meaningful details about next week’s forecast. The best that can be said is that we’re looking at higher rain chances around next Thursday and Friday. And even that can change.

Here’s a look at the set-up as we track this weekend’s front pushing into the Gulf and then next week’s possible tropical moisture heading northward to the Gulf Coast:

A cold front brings us much drier weather on the Gulf Coast this weekend. That front will push... — A cold front brings us much drier weather on the Gulf Coast this weekend. That front will push out into the Gulf, blocking any tropical moisture from coming our way this weekend.(WLOX)

Once the front is gone, around the middle of next week, some of the tropical moisture may try... — Once the front is gone, around the middle of next week, some of the tropical moisture may try to make a run to the north. This could cause higher rain chances for parts of the Gulf Coast region. But, not every model is in agreement on the rain potential.(WLOX)

The problem for now is that the models are showing significant disagreement on the rain potential for next week. Have a look at the GFS model which clobbers us with extreme rain next week and the Euro model which doesn’t show much at all for us:

GFS model shows extreme rain amounts of more than six inches from coastal Texas to Mississippi... — GFS model shows extreme rain amounts of more than six inches from coastal Texas to Mississippi from Thursday Oct 12 to Friday Oct 13.(WLOX)

Euro model shows hardly any rain from coastal Texas to Mississippi from Thursday Oct 12 to... — Euro model shows hardly any rain from coastal Texas to Mississippi from Thursday Oct 12 to Friday Oct 13. It keeps the wet weather farther south than the GFS model.(WLOX)

GFS model shows extreme rain amounts of more than six inches in and near South Mississippi... — GFS model shows extreme rain amounts of more than six inches in and near South Mississippi from Thursday Oct 12 to Friday Oct 13.(WLOX)

Euro model shows little to no rain in and near South Mississippi from Thursday Oct 12 to... — Euro model shows little to no rain in and near South Mississippi from Thursday Oct 12 to Friday Oct 13.(WLOX)

It is common to watch the Gulf for tropical development in October. If the National Hurricane Center begins to highlight this area, they would probably start doing that around five to seven days prior to next Thursday. Until then, this feature may be too far in the future or this feature may be too unlikely to develop for them to highlight.

Click here to subscribe to WLOX News on YouTube: Keep up with South Mississippi news, sports, and local events on our YouTube channel!

Copyright 2023 WLOX. All rights reserved.