How Supreme Court decisions will help determine if House flips blue in 2024

Published: Jul. 6, 2023 at 3:54 PM CDT
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WASHINGTON (Gray DC) - Just five months after winning the House, Republicans are already looking to defend their majority in 2024.

A Supreme Court decision requiring Alabama to add an additional majority-minority district will likely lead to an additional Democratic pickup there, and in Louisiana, which had similar Congressional map issues.

Amy Walter with The Cook Political Report says

“This puts a number of Republican incumbents in very tough situation, and is likely going to mean another Democrat in Alabama, another Democrat in Louisiana,” said Amy Walter, editor-in-chief of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter.

Walter said there is a problem for the left. The Congressional map making game is played by the GOP as well, and will shake out in states like North Carolina.

“They were hoping to put at least two or three Democratic incumbents in much more Republican leaning districts,” Walter said.

Add it all up, and The Cook Political Report has the House race rated as a toss-up in the competition to gain 218 seats and control of the chamber

Walter said the race will be so tight, individual situations like re-electing the embattled George Santos could come into play.

“It absolutely matters,” Walter said. “I mean the district, in-and-of itself is very, very competitive.”

Walter says the big group to watch is a contingent of 18 Republicans who need to win re-election in districts president Joe Biden carried.

“How can you convince voters who don’t like Donald Trump to come and vote for Biden, and then come back down and vote for you,” Walter said. “That is a very big challenge.”

The House elections will coincide with the presidential election next November.