‘Above-Normal activity’ predicted for 2021 hurricane season

SOUTH MISSISSIPPI (WLOX) - Hurricane season 2021 is predicted to be busier than normal, according to a forecast released from Colorado State University on Thursday.

CSU predicts 17 named storms, eight hurricanes, and four major hurricanes for the 2021 Atlantic season.

This would be above the normal of 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

However, this would actually be below last year’s incredibly busy season. The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season brought a record-setting 30 named storms, 13 hurricanes, and six major hurricanes.

“Reasons for above-average forecast include predicted lack of El Nino and warmer than normal subtropical Atlantic,” said Philip Klotzbach who released the CSU hurricane season forecast discussion on Thursday.

“As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them,” Klotzbach’s discussion read. “They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”

“Remember, that this is just the first prediction from CSU,” said WLOX First Alert Meteorologist Wesley Williams on Thursday. “CSU will release an update to their forecast later this year around June. And they’ll update it yet again later this year in August. So there’s time for those numbers to change.”

“While we’d like to see them go down, we have to consider that the predicted numbers could increase later this year if seasonal conditions become more favorable,” Williams continued. “That’s what happened last year.”

For reference, last April’s CSU prediction called for 16 named storms, eight hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. That is just one less named storm than their April 2021 forecast calls for. And we remember how last year turned out with more than 30 named storms.

Later last year, CSU updated their 2020 season forecast in June to call for 19 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. And then when they updated their 2020 season forecast again in August, they called for 24 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes. All of their predictions last year were all under-forecast.

Hurricane season officially begins in two months on June 1.

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