Showers and storms likely on Monday

There is a low risk for severe weather

Carrie's Midday First Alert Forecast

South Mississippi (WLOX) - After a beautiful weekend, changes are on the way! A cold front will bring the chance for thunderstorms Monday afternoon across South Mississippi. While widespread severe weather is not expected, a few storms may reach severe limits with isolated damaging wind gusts being the main concern. The tornado risk is low, but not zero.

Timing

Showers will be possible before noon. However, the best chance for rain is expected to arrive between 2 PM and 8 PM

Weather Set-Up

A cold front is expected to move from the Rockies near the Mississippi River and Southeast by Monday. Ahead of this front, we’re going to see a southerly wind from the Gulf of Mexico. This will help bring warm, humid air to the Southeast. The front will help spark some showers and storms from this humid air mass.

Ahead of the front, an upper level disturbance will ride along the jet stream from northern Mexico towards the Louisiana coastline. It is possible that this disturbance could ignite a large complex of thunderstorms just off the Louisiana coast. If this occurs, it could rob the storms associated with the cold front over land from moisture and fuel, causing them to weaken.

WLOX Weather
WLOX Weather (Source: WLOX Weather)
WLOX Weather
WLOX Weather (Source: WLOX Weather)

Some models show the coastal complex of storms becoming dominate and hugging the Louisiana/Mississippi coast. If this plays out, the stormiest weather could stay just offshore. If this complex of storms tracks about 20-30 miles further north, South Mississippi could see much stormier weather.

Impacts

There is a low risk for severe weather on Monday. The Storm Prediction Center has us under a Level One, or Marginal Risk, for severe storms. A few strong wind gusts, heavy downpours, and frequent lightning are the main concerns. There is a very low chance for a brief, spin-up tornado. There is a greater risk for severe storms to our north and west. Rainfall amounts will generally be around 0.5 -1″. A little more is possible in some of the stronger storms.

South MS is under a slight risk for severe weather today.
South MS is under a slight risk for severe weather today. (Source: WLOX First Alert Weather Team)

Rain chances will be much lower by Tuesday and Wednesday. After the front passes, we’ll see high temperatures in the 70s for the middle of the week.

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