Tropical moisture will increase rain chances this week; may prolong Mississippi River flooding

Regardless if the system develops, heavy rain could fall in places already experiencing river flooding

Taylor's 5 PM Tuesday First Alert Forecast

BILOXI, Miss. (WLOX) -Hurricane season is here and the WLOX First Alert Weather Team has been keeping an eye on a disturbance near Northeast Mexico in the Gulf of Mexico.

The National Hurricane Center has now given this disturbance a low chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next 2-5 days. If a tropical storm forms, it would be the second named storm of the season and would be called “Barry.” However, this is looking unlikely.

Even though development looks unlikely, it could send moisture interacting with a cold front by the middle of the week to portions of the country dealing with river flooding. If heavy rain falls there, it could lead to prolonged higher river levels on the Mississippi River.

Where is it going and will it impact South Mississippi?

The disturbance is moving towards South Texas and is being steered by a large area of high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Latest model trends curve the area of low-pressure northwest along the Northeast coast of Mexico then into South Texas by June 5th.

There is a lot of uncertainty beyond the middle of the week but, some forecast data suggest left over moisture from this disturbance could interact with a weak cold front and low pressure system by the end of the week (June 6-8th) to bring increased rain chances to South Mississippi.

Could this impact the salinity levels in the Mississippi Sound?

It is likely remnant moisture will interact with this low pressure system to bring heavy rain to the central part of the country. Many of these areas are still dealing with major river flooding and all of that water flows into the Mississippi River, which eventually dumps into the Gulf of Mexico. Any additional rain in those areas could prolong flooding along the Mississippi river, potentially resulting in a longer period of fresh water intrusion in the Gulf. It is too early to say if that scenario will play out.

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