Clouds and rain to steal sunshine away again this week

Eric's Sunday Evening First Alert Forecast 2.24.19

BILOXI, MS (WLOX) - After what seems like weeks of fog and clouds, the sun has returned to South Mississippi. Soak it up while you can on Monday because clouds are expected to return by Monday night and rain is possible as early as Tuesday.

Why all the clouds?

It’s all thanks to a persistent and active southern branch of the jet stream, a strong river of fast-moving air in the upper-levels of the atmosphere that carries storm systems from point A to point B.

This week the southern branch of the jet stream will carry weak disturbances or areas of low pressure down stream along the Gulf Coast and southern US.

With each disturbance that passes through, rain chances will increase, but who sees the highest totals depends on the exact track of these small disturbances. If they track south over the Gulf of Mexico, that would mean less heavy rain for South Mississippi. If they track along the coast or north, that could mean more heavy rain and possibly thunderstorms.

But will it rain all week non-stop? No

Future radar for Tuesday 2.26.19 posted 2.24.19

Model data coming in tonight continues to trend wetter for Tuesday. An upper level disturbance will pass along the Gulf coast Monday night into Tuesday bringing a chance for rain, even some thunderstorms. The track of this disturbance will dictate who sees the heaviest rain. It will be a close call. If it tracks further north like this model suggest, we could see heavy rain. If it tracks further south, we will see less. Posted 2.24.19 9 PM

Posted by Meteorologist Eric Jeansonne on Sunday, February 24, 2019

The week is not expected to be a washout. There will be plenty of breaks between the showers and thunderstorms.

But the clouds look like they will stick around, stealing our sunshine on the coast.

Will there be more fog?

It is possible fog could return by Tuesday, especially to areas right along the coast. However, it is too soon to say if it will be as dense, widespread and persistent as it has been this month.

The coast has seen so much fog because warm, moist air has been in place over the relatively cool waters of the Mississippi Sound. The water cools the air to a point in which it can’t hold moisture anymore. It condenses and forms clouds or fog.

The water over the sound has warmed considerably over the past week, which could reduce the cooling needed to form the fog.

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