Gulf low stays east, to make "landfall" Wednesday

Gulf low stays east, to make "landfall" Wednesday
Our weather pattern's forecast is becoming clearer for the second half of this week as confidence in the Gulf low's forecast track increases.
Our weather pattern's forecast is becoming clearer for the second half of this week as confidence in the Gulf low's forecast track increases.
A close call with heavy rainfall just off to our east through Friday.
A close call with heavy rainfall just off to our east through Friday.
Timeline: this week brings South MS one rain system on Thursday. Otherwise, just pop-up storms each day with no tropical impacts.
Timeline: this week brings South MS one rain system on Thursday. Otherwise, just pop-up storms each day with no tropical impacts.

SOUTH MISSISSIPPI (WLOX) - As the WLOX First Alert Weather Team continues to track the low in the northeast Gulf of Mexico, new info has come in from computer models on its projected path.

New model information on Tuesday is leading to even higher confidence that South Mississippi will be spared from any heavy tropical rainfall this week.

The "center" of the low pressure system is expected to never move westward of Pensacola, FL, according to a Tuesday forecast.

Then, the low's center is projected to make "landfall" near Panama City, FL on Wednesday. It will then move farther inland and northward away from South Mississippi into the rest of the week.

"This would keep South Mississippi on the western and drier side of the system the entire time, preventing us from ever seeing any widespread tropical rainfall," said WLOX First Alert Meteorologist Wesley Williams on Tuesday. "We could still see typical summertime pop-up storms each afternoon just because it's so hot and humid, though."

"Also, the window for this Gulf low to become a depression or a storm is quickly closing and should be completely shut by Wednesday," Williams continued. "Development is simply not expected due to several limiting factors: sea temperatures aren't warm enough and it's just too disorganized due in part to its proximity to the coast."

South Mississippi's next rain system could actually be one that develops in the Plains on Wednesday and arrives along the Gulf Coast from the northwest on Thursday bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Rainfall amounts for South Mississippi over the next five to seven days remain at less than two inches, according to a Tuesday forecast.

Forecast summary for South Mississippi:

Tuesday: Isolated thunderstorms, mainly P.M. Highs: low to mid 90s.

Wednesday: Isolated thunderstorms, mainly P.M. Highs: upper 80s to lower 90s

Thursday: Scattered thunderstorms. Highs: upper 80s to lower 90s.

Friday: Isolated thunderstorms. Highs: upper 80s to lower 90s.

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