SOUTH MISSISSIPPI (WLOX) - A cold front will bring a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms to south Mississippi on Monday. Widespread heavy rain and stormy conditions are not expected with this front. But, if a thunderstorm can get going, it may have the chance to become strong to severe.
That's why the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) out of Norman, Oklahoma has highlighted South Mississippi in a marginal risk for severe weather. This means the probability is low, but not zero.
Widespread severe weather is not anticipated at this time due to a lack of instability and upper level support-ingredients needed in abundance to give thunderstorms the boost they need to grow stronger. Rainfall amounts are expected to be less than an inch.
The time frame will be in the first part of the day between 9 AM and 3 PM. Rain should come to an end by the early evening.
The forecast looks quiet Tuesday through Friday with mild temperatures in the 60s. Then, rain chances increase by the weekend.
Both the GFS and European models are hinting at a heavy rain event somewhere along the Gulf Coast. The exact track of the storm system will dictate where the heaviest and most stormy weather occurs. This is still several days out with plenty of time for details to change.
So what makes a storm severe?
For a storm to be classified as severe, the National Weather Service has specific criteria. Just because a thunderstorm is producing heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds, that does not mean it is severe.
A severe thunderstorm is one that has winds of 58 mph or stronger and or hail 1 inch in diameter or larger and or capable of producing a tornado.