FIRST ALERT: Chance for heavy tropical flooding rain this week - WLOX.com - The News for South Mississippi

FIRST ALERT: Chance for heavy tropical flooding rain this week

Computer models remain uncertain on the forecast track for Invest 93-L. One has the storm's center moving toward Texas, another model has it moving toward the Mississippi Coast around midweek. Computer models remain uncertain on the forecast track for Invest 93-L. One has the storm's center moving toward Texas, another model has it moving toward the Mississippi Coast around midweek.
One forecast model showing very heavy to extreme rainfall forecast for this week along the Gulf Coast region. This was the model that had 93L making landfall near the MS coast. Notice how the heaviest rain totals are to our east. One forecast model showing very heavy to extreme rainfall forecast for this week along the Gulf Coast region. This was the model that had 93L making landfall near the MS coast. Notice how the heaviest rain totals are to our east.
Another model showing very heavy rainfall this week. Keep in mind that this model assumes the system makes a Texas landfall. We see heavy rain regardless. Another model showing very heavy rainfall this week. Keep in mind that this model assumes the system makes a Texas landfall. We see heavy rain regardless.
Bottom line with 93-L, South Mississippi should prepare now for the potential for flooding from heavy tropical rains this week. Bottom line with 93-L, South Mississippi should prepare now for the potential for flooding from heavy tropical rains this week.
Heavy rainfall will be possible along the MS Gulf Coast beginning Tuesday and continuing through Thursday. Heavy rainfall will be possible along the MS Gulf Coast beginning Tuesday and continuing through Thursday.
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SOUTH MISSISSIPPI (WLOX) -

Alert Days have been declared for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. A tropical disturbance may potentially threaten the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Heavy, flooding rain and coastal flooding will be possible.

Watching the tropics on Monday. A disturbance labeled as "Invest 93-L" was moving north near the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday.

It appears almost certain that 93-L will become a tropical system in the Gulf by Wednesday. There is still some uncertainty in the forecast track of this center of this disturbance: will it go west to Texas or north toward Louisiana?

93-L track forecast still not nailed down since a system hasn't even formed yet. But, it looks like we will likely not be dealing with a rapid intensification into a major hurricane.

We will, however, probably see 93-L intensify to a depression or storm by Wednesday.

Regardless of its development and track, it'll likely send plenty of tropical moisture our way; residents of the Mississippi Gulf Coast should prepare now for heavy tropical rains to arrive this week, some time between Tuesday and Thursday, which could cause flooding issues.

Three to six inches of widespread rainfall can be expected. The problem is that there could be pockets of much higher rainfall totals that could exceed ten inches. It is impossible to know where the heaviest rain will fall until the event begins. But, those areas that experience the extreme rainfall will be most susceptible to seeing flash flooding.

Coastal areas will also deal with the threat of onshore flow piling up water right along the coastline. This will allow for tides as much as two to four feet above normal, depending on storm track. So, there could be a coastal flooding threat, especially for Hancock County near the east- and southeast-facing shoreline, in addition to the heavy rain flooding.

Be prepared for advisories and alerts to begin being issued for parts of the Gulf Coast from the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service by Tuesday.

New in 2017, the National Hurricane Center now has the ability to issue advisories for systems that have not formed yet but they expect to form within the next few days. These will be called Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories. It allows NHC to get the word out about possible impacts instead of having to wait for a system to form. These advisories will have a forecast cone just like with the advisories for tropical storms and hurricanes. So, don't be surprised this year if you are in the forecast cone of a disturbance that has not formed yet. Treat them like you would a forecast cone for a tropical storm or a hurricane. And know that a disturbance or storm has impacts that usually stretch outside of the cone area; the cone only illustrates where the center of the disturbance or storm is forecast to go.

Stay tuned to this developing forecast as we begin to learn more once it forms in the coming days.

Copyright 2017 WLOX. All rights reserved.

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