Tropical development likely in southern Gulf of Mexico this week - WLOX.com - The News for South Mississippi

Tropical development likely in southern Gulf of Mexico this week

Broad area of low pressure in western Caribbean Sea being monitored for potential tropical development Broad area of low pressure in western Caribbean Sea being monitored for potential tropical development
SOUTH MISSISSIPPI (WLOX) -

A broad area of low pressure in the western Caribbean Sea is becoming better organized Sunday.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has increased the probability of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next 2-5 days as it slowly drifts west and north towards the Yucatan Peninsula and southern Gulf of Mexico.
  

As of Sunday morning, the disturbance was still encountering strong southwesterly wind shear, keeping thunderstorms away from the center of circulation and slowing the development process.

Tropical systems can not develop when they are being torn apart from wind shear. However, as the system slowly drifts north, wind shear is expected to weaken some, which may allow for it to develop further if it can survive its track over the Yucatan Peninsula.
 

Where will it go?
It is still too soon to speculate the exact track of a storm that has not fully developed yet. Currently, the disturbance is caught up in a very weak steering pattern over the Caribbean.

As it moves north, it could get caught up in the steering current of an area of high pressure over the western US. This could potentially drag the system north and west towards Texas or Mexico.

Another possibility is for an area of high pressure over the Atlantic to pull the disturbance north and east towards Florida.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft may be scheduled to fly into the system to collect data later Sunday or Monday if the system shows signs of better organization. Once data is collected from hurricane hunters, it can be plugged into forecast models to get a better idea of how this system may evolve. Until then, it will be difficult to pin down an exact track.

So what does this mean for South Mississippi?
As of now, it looks like rain chances will start to increase starting Tuesday-Friday with the increase in tropical moisture along the Gulf Coast. Choppy seas may start to develop over the Gulf, especially if this system becomes better organized. 



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