Scattered storms possible Memorial Day - - The News for South Mississippi

Scattered storms possible Memorial Day

Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe storms Memorial Day afternoon. (Photo source: WLOX) Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe storms Memorial Day afternoon. (Photo source: WLOX)

After a few dry days, the weather pattern changes as we head into the second half of Memorial Day Weekend.

For the most part, Sunday is a dry day. Rain chances go up a little Sunday afternoon, with the best chances being across northern Pearl River, George, and Stone counties.

Here's why: A complex of showers and thunderstorms over Arkansas and northern Mississippi on Sunday morning will push an outflow boundary south into central Mississippi by Sunday afternoon.

What’s an outflow boundary? Glad you asked. An outflow boundary is the leading edge of a pool of rain-cooled air formed by thunderstorms. It can act as a miniature cold front and help spark showers and thunderstorms.

By Sunday afternoon, the outflow boundary weakens as it pushes south, but begins to interact with the sea breeze. The sea breeze is cooler air that forms over a large body of water and moves inland. The interaction of these two boundaries may create a few showers and storms mainly north of I-10 and I-12. One or two of these storms may produce strong winds.

Memorial Day
A better chance for rain and storms comes on Monday as a cold front approaches South Mississippi. As it moves south, it weakens and slows down. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible along this front Monday afternoon and Tuesday.  A few ingredients are coming together for some of these storms to be on the strong to severe side with locally high winds and hail being the main concern.

Much of South Mississippi is under a Marginal Risk (level 1) for severe storms Monday afternoon. Remember, the severe weather outlook tells you the probability of seeing severe weather in your area. Not “how severe” storms will be. The probability increases as you go from Marginal to High.

Overall, widespread severe thunderstorms are not expected. There will be plenty of dry times with a few showers and storms to dodge Monday and Tuesday. 

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