Tropics heating up: What you need to know - WLOX.com - The News for South Mississippi

Tropics heating up: What you need to know

SOUTH MISSISSIPPI (WLOX) -

We are moving into the most active time of the hurricane season, and the tropics are showing it with three systems that we are currently watching.

As of Monday night, two tropical depressions sit in the Atlantic basin with Tropical Depression Fiona weakening as it moves northwest and Tropical Depression Seven strengthening as it moves away from the African coast and across the Atlantic.

Between these two areas and a bit south we have a tropical wave currently being referred to as 99-L that has a 20 percent chance of development over the next 48 hours and a 50 percent chance of development over the next five days.

There has been a lot of chatter recently on social media where people are posting single model runs of 99-L moving into the Gulf of Mexico. This has some people asking the WLOX First Alert Weather Team a lot of questions.

"As of right now, we don't have any threats for a storm entering the Gulf of Mexico," said Meteorologist Andrew Wilson.

Wilson said people tend to jump the gun on posting model data up to 10 days out, which is almost 100 percent of the time incorrect.

The National Hurricane Center only forecasts five days out for a good reason. That's because if you want any accuracy, it really needs to be within that time period. If you are outside that period, you end up just scarring people who will likely not be affected in any way.

"The past several years around this time, the computer models that we use to build our forecasts have tried to put a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, but it hasn't happened. Yet, we continue to see people online that are not trustworthy sources for weather forecasts post these images 10 days out that just scare people," said Wilson.

Wilson said always make sure wherever you are getting your information from on the internet is a trustworthy source, or else you are just wasting your time.

So, what does the WLOX First Alert Weather Team think about this system, 99-L, and where do we think it is going to go?

"Right now, it is hard to tell if it is going to do much of anything, and we currently don't consider it a threat for the Gulf of Mexico," said Wilson.

Dry air looks to be an issue for the system as it moves toward the Lesser Antilles and the Caribbean Sea.

Most models have it approaching the Bahamas and then curving north, but some have the system moving into the Gulf of Mexico.

"The thing about these models is that they have several runs a day," said Wilson. "You may have one run that sends it into Mexico, and then the very next run sends it to Bermuda. They are so flip-flop when you are 10 days out. It is just too early to worry about."

South Mississippi continues to NOT be under a threat for a tropical system, but if one does look to threaten the coast, the WLOX First Alert Weather Team will be the first to alert you and keep you updated.

Copyright 2016 WLOX. All rights reserved. 

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