Wesley's Blog: First freeze could arrive behind schedule - WLOX.com - The News for South Mississippi

Wesley's Blog: First freeze could arrive behind schedule

Overall, South Mississippi's first freeze typically happens around November 20th. Overall, South Mississippi's first freeze typically happens around November 20th.
Due to a strong El Niño this year, a cooler and wetter winter pattern is expected across much of the South U.S. Due to a strong El Niño this year, a cooler and wetter winter pattern is expected across much of the South U.S.
SOUTH MISSISSIPPI (WLOX) -

After the summer heat has waned and the cooler fall weather takes over, November is typically the month that South Mississippi has its first freeze. 

On average, South Mississippi's first freeze occurs around November 20th. Typically, it can happen from late October to late December.

As far as extremes go, one of South Mississippi's earliest first freezes occurred in George County on an October 2nd. The latest? One year, Biloxi didn't drop to 32° or lower until early spring, on a March 6th. Indeed, though rare, some winters can pass without freezing temperatures at all.

I doubt we'll see an extremely late first freeze this time around. Due to a strong El Niño this year, a cooler and wetter winter pattern is expected across much of the South U.S.

So, will South Mississippi have its first freeze this month? Probably not. Our extended forecast calls for cooler than normal temperatures this weekend (Nov 14-15). But, 32°? Nope. Only 40s.

Interestingly enough, South Mississippi's weather could become quite cool this year right around the time of our average first freeze.

Looking down the pipe, the Global Forecast System (a long-range computer model forecast, 'GFS' for short), is bringing in a cold front across South Mississippi around November 18th, or next Wednesday. Behind that front, the GFS drops South Mississippi's Thursday morning low temperatures into the low/mid 40s. The thing is, forecasts that far out into the future (7+ days) are rarely close to what actually winds up happening. So, I wouldn't go betting on it. And even still, this forecast is not calling for first freeze material.

So, it seems this year we'll have to wait until later than average (later than Nov 20) for our first freeze in South Mississippi. Sorry, cold weather lovers! At least El Niño is on your side to bring potentially cooler than normal temperatures this winter... you'll just have to be patient for it.

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