Erika remains disorganized on Friday - WLOX.com - The News for South Mississippi

Erika remains disorganized on Friday

On Friday afternoon, Erika's center was moving due west. Need northerly movement in order for Hispaniola's terrain to disrupt it. On Friday afternoon, Erika's center was moving due west. Need northerly movement in order for Hispaniola's terrain to disrupt it.
The official NHC track takes Erika into or near Florida by early next week as a tropical storm. The official NHC track takes Erika into or near Florida by early next week as a tropical storm.

Erika remained disorganized in the Caribbean on Friday morning. The tropical storm had max wind of 50 miles per hour and was still expected to cross the island of Hispaniola later Friday.

On Friday afternoon, Erika's center was moving due west. It would need a more northerly movement in order for Hispaniola's terrain to disrupt it.

Dry air, and wind shear should continue to work against Erika's intensification in the short-term. However, if the storm should survive its journey across Hispaniola and make it to the very warm waters near the Bahamas, it could increase in strength this weekend.

Again, it is very possible that if Erika treks across the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Friday, it may fall apart due to unfavorable conditions including high terrain.

By early next week, the official National Hurricane Center forecast takes Erika either into or very near Florida. A small change in the exact location of Erika's center next week could make a big difference in Erika's intensity. "The new intensity forecast is... low confidence," NHC admitted in their Friday morning discussion.

If Erika does make landfall in Florida next Monday, then the storm would likely decrease in strength since tropical systems typically don't intensify over land, but instead water. But, if the storm's center fails to move over the land of Florida, and instead meanders along the west or east coast of the Florida peninsula, further intensification would be possible.

Tropical Storm Erika is already being blamed for deaths and missing people in the Leeward Islands due to flooding and mudslides. Areas in Hispaniola will have to deal heavy rain from Erika, with three to six inches of rain in their forecast which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

The governor of Florida has declared a state of emergency. Local NWS offices in south Florida are forecasting tropical storm conditions to impact their area Sunday through Tuesday with the main concern being the potential for flooding rainfall.

No local impacts along the Mississippi Gulf Coast are expected from Erika. But, locations in Florida should monitor Erika closely over the next 24 hours. Overall, considerable uncertainty remains in Erika's long-range forecast. But, the storm's fate should become clearer if it clears the Caribbean Islands.

The WLOX Weather Team will inform you of South Mississippi's forecast on-air, online, and using social media tools like Facebook and Twitter.

You can like us on Facebook: Carrie Duncan WLOX MeteorologistMeteorologist Wesley WilliamsTommy Richards, and Meteorologist Andrew Wilson.

And follow us on Twitter: @carrieduncanwx@WesWilliamsii@TommyWLOX@AndrewWilsonWX

Copyright 2015 WLOX. All rights reserved.

  • WLOX First Alert Weather BlogsMore>>

  • Weekend cold front to bring a few strong storms, comfortable air

    Weekend cold front to bring a few strong storms, comfortable air

    Thursday, July 27 2017 2:03 PM EDT2017-07-27 18:03:17 GMT
    A late-July cold front expected to arrive this weekendA late-July cold front expected to arrive this weekend

    In July, we take any break from the heat we can get in south Mississippi. It looks like we might get that break late this weekend with the arrival of a cold front. 

    More >>

    In July, we take any break from the heat we can get in south Mississippi. It looks like we might get that break late this weekend with the arrival of a cold front. 

    More >>
  • Tropics quiet in Gulf through weekend, monitoring wave in Atlantic

    Tropics quiet in Gulf through weekend, monitoring wave in Atlantic

    Thursday, July 27 2017 1:27 PM EDT2017-07-27 17:27:01 GMT
    A tropical wave about 1600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is showing signs of slow development Thursday morning (7-27-17)A tropical wave about 1600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is showing signs of slow development Thursday morning (7-27-17)

    As we enter the final stretch of July and deeper into the heart of Hurricane Season, the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean are expected to stay quiet over the next 3-5 days. 

    More >>

    As we enter the final stretch of July and deeper into the heart of Hurricane Season, the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean are expected to stay quiet over the next 3-5 days. 

    More >>
  • Hole punch cloud seen over Gulfport

    Hole punch cloud seen over Gulfport

    Tuesday, July 25 2017 11:00 AM EDT2017-07-25 15:00:31 GMT
    A hole punch cloud was seen over the Mississippi Gulf Coast.A hole punch cloud was seen over the Mississippi Gulf Coast.
    A hole appeared in the clouds on Tuesday morning over the Mississippi Gulf Coast. This rare cloud phenomenon is known as a hole punch cloud. It has other names; sometimes this cloud formation is called a fallstreak hole, a punch hole cloud, or even a skypunch. 7-25-17 Hole in the clouds So, what caused the clouds to look like someone punched a hole in them? Airplanes are the culprit, according to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). An article published by N...More >>
    A hole appeared in the clouds on Tuesday morning over the Mississippi Gulf Coast. This rare cloud phenomenon is known as a hole punch cloud. It has other names; sometimes this cloud formation is called a fallstreak hole, a punch hole cloud, or even a skypunch. 7-25-17 Hole in the clouds So, what caused the clouds to look like someone punched a hole in them? Airplanes are the culprit, according to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). An article published by N...More >>
Powered by Frankly