The latest tropical discussion on Danny by the National Hurricane Center came out at 7:00 p.m. Saturday. It said the storm now only has 65 mph sustained winds and a pressure of 997 mb, which means the storm has been downgraded to Tropical Storm Danny.
The forecast track still shows the storm moving west-northwest over the next five days. The storm will continue to weaken to a tropical depression in about 120 hours according to the latest track by the NHC.
The reason behind the rapid weakening is all centered around the same things we have been talking about the last few days. The storm is now fully surrounded by a dry air mass, which isn't good for tropical systems.
Another reason behind the weakening is that the storm has now entered an area of fairly strong wind shear, which causes the storm to have a tilt.
The storm is forecast to stay in the area of good shear over the next three days and then move into an area of weaker shear. This would get rid of one of the issues for the storm.
However, the dry air mass will still bring issues over the next four to five days. The storm has the problem of dealing with the mountains on the Greater Antilles, such as Hispaniola and Cuba.
The mountains on these islands have a strong effect on tropical systems.
A tropical system is a low level system and when they move across the water they start to get into a rhythm. Kind of like how your car engine has a rhythm to it, or how you get into a rhythm when you go out for a run.
These storms that pass over the mountains need a long time to recover, but they often don't have enough time to. They need favorable conditions to get back into their rhythm.
It does not appear that Danny will be able to get back into it's rhythm after moving over these islands. Some long distance models have the storm collapsing all the way down to a tropical wave by the time it approaches South Florida.
With that being said, this storm is not considered a threat to South Mississippi. We will continue to monitor it closely and bring you updates over the next several days.