Wesley's Blog: 1st Round of Spring Severe Weather Approaches - WLOX.com - The News for South Mississippi

Wesley's Blog: 1st Round of Spring Severe Weather Approaches

On Friday morning, a line of showers and thunderstorms could be seen on radar, ahead of the front, stretching from New York to Texas. On Friday morning, a line of showers and thunderstorms could be seen on radar, ahead of the front, stretching from New York to Texas.
Heavy rain and lightning will be likely with the storms while hail the size of quarters and 50 to 60 mph wind gusts will be possible with any stronger cells. Heavy rain and lightning will be likely with the storms while hail the size of quarters and 50 to 60 mph wind gusts will be possible with any stronger cells.
Saturday's best rain chance will either be out over the open water of the northern Gulf or right along the northern Gulf coast with inland locations possibly avoiding some of the rain activity Saturday's best rain chance will either be out over the open water of the northern Gulf or right along the northern Gulf coast with inland locations possibly avoiding some of the rain activity
BILOXI, MS (WLOX) -


Overview

Welcome to a wet weekend, y'all! It's not my first go-round with severe weather potential in the southeast. But, thanks for stopping by to read more info about today's forecast. You're ahead of the game! 

Friday won't be the end of the world for us. But, we could see a few stronger storms during the afternoon. So, it's not a bad idea to download that free WLOX Weather app so you can track today's storms on radar and receive the latest weather alerts for our area.

Severe weather discussion: threats and timing

Southerly flow off the Gulf has continued to pump heat & moisture Into the southeast for the last several days ahead of the cold front. On Friday morning, a line of showers and thunderstorms could be seen on radar, ahead of the front, stretching from New York to Texas. It doesn't help that we have actually seen some sunshine on Friday morning which will only heat things up more before the line of storms arrives... providing a more favorable atmosphere for thunderstorm development. 

The MS Gulf Coast should expect the main line of storms to arrive from the northwest some time Friday afternoon, as early as 12pm to 2pm. During this time numerous thunderstorms will work their way southeastward through our viewing area. Heavy rain and lightning will be likely with the storms while hail the size of quarters and 50 to 60 mph wind gusts will be possible with any stronger cells. Fortunately, the tornado threat for south MS extremely low. So, gusty winds and hail will be all way have to worry about. Most models move the storms east out of our area by about 9pm or so. We can expect generally quieter conditions behind the front Into Friday night with only a few lingering showers.

Stalling front means rainy weekend

The big thing most folks want to know is will the rain be bad all weekend. Well, that all depends on how far south the cold front dives before it stalls out. 

Often this time of year, cold fronts lose their push once they make it to the coast and will stall out and become stationary over the northern Gulf. Usually showers and thunderstorms will fire up along that stationary boundary for a few days. The key is, if the front stalls pretty far south well out over the open Gulf, we can get Into some rather rain-free conditions for Saturday even along the coast. But, if the front stalls right along the coast (which is what I suspect will happen), then there will be a chance for showers and storms wherever the front is stationed. Bottom line, it looks like Saturday's best rain chance will be either out over the open water of the northern Gulf or right along the northern Gulf coast with Inland locations possibly avoiding some of the rain activity. So, yes, beach goers... it seems you'll have to contend with some showers unless this front sinks well off the coast which I feel is unlikely.

In any case, Saturday really is our only hope for rain-free conditions. That's because the stationary boundary will return northward as a warm front on Sunday, bringing likely rain showers with a chance of thunderstorms to much of the northern Gulf Coast. So, if you miss out on rain Saturday, you'll probably get caught by a few showers on Sunday.

When will we see a drier weather pattern?

As the warm front lifts northward during the beginning of next week, we will keep a pretty decent chance of rain showers In the forecast. Southerly flow will pull in more warm and moist air from the Gulf to fuel plenty of showers along much of the Gulf Coast on Monday and Tuesday. Perhaps by midweek we could see the rain chances lessen slightly. But, the next cold front is expected to arrive next Friday and we could be dealing with another wet end to the week.

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